The Role of Institutional Quality in Forecasting the Total Stock Price Index: Case Study of Developing and Developed Countries

The purpose of this paper is the empirically examination of the effect of the Institutional Quality Components (Voice and Accountability, political stability and Absence of Violence and Terrorism, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption) on the prediction of total stock price index. The study was carried out using data extracted from 53 countries from the World Bank and Thomson Data Stream website over a period of 15 years between 2002 and 2016. The results of this study in various countries surveyed showed that the components of institutional quality have a positive and significant effect on the total stock price index. The results show that, as the institutional quality of the countries improves, the stock price index will increase. The results also indicate that identifying the institutional weaknesses in developing and developed countries would be a pathway to improve the investment in the capital markets.